Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown preview
In the fixture between Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown, the 1X2 probabilities show Gimnasia Jujuy at 48%, while Almirante Brown stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Gimnasia Jujuy has an expected goals figure of 1.63 compared to Almirante Brown's 1.36, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
Both teams to score is at 61%, and Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 57%. However, Gimnasia Jujuy's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 5 matches, which could affect their performance. Almirante Brown has also struggled, with 4 losses in their last 6 games. This inconsistency might lead to unexpected outcomes despite the statistical advantages.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia Jujuy | Draw | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia Jujuy, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 1.80 | 1.84 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.20 | -0.04 |
| Almirante Brown | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Gimnasia Jujuy / Almirante Brown)
- 1.29 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Gimnasia Jujuy / Almirante Brown)
- 1.78 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia Jujuy goals. Columns: Almirante Brown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Almirante Brown | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia Jujuy or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Almirante Brown) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Jujuy win by 2+ | 23% | 4.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown recent form
Gimnasia Jujuy
1W 2D 3L
Almirante Brown
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia Jujuy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-2
- Win rate
- 61%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almirante Brown away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-8
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.72
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 19 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia Jujuy at home only, Almirante Brown away only.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Gimnasia Jujuy 6 · draws 1 · Almirante Brown 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-24 | Almirante Brown | 0-0 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-04-20 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-05-29 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 3-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2014-03-24 | Almirante Brown | 1-3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2013-09-21 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 3-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2013-03-24 | Almirante Brown | 0-1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2012-09-23 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2012-05-26 | Almirante Brown | 2-1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2011-11-27 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-2 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes 2026-11-14
- Temperley v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-11-14
- Colon Santa Fe vs Midland 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Gimnasia Jujuy, previous: San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy prediction
- Almirante Brown, previous: Godoy Cruz – Almirante Brown, 2026-10-31