Colon Santa Fe vs Midland preview
In the match between Colon Santa Fe and Midland, the 1X2 probabilities show Colon Santa Fe at 48%, while Midland sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% chance of occurring. Colon Santa Fe's expected goals are 1.40, compared to Midland's 0.75, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome. While both teams to score stands at 41% and Over 2.5 goals at 37%, these figures indicate that scoring may be limited. If Midland improves their form, they could challenge Colon Santa Fe more than expected.
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland: model vs market
| Source | Colon Santa Fe | Draw | Midland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Published | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colon Santa Fe, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colon Santa Fe | 1.83 | 1.95 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Midland | 4.50 | 4.10 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colon Santa Fe and Midland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Colon Santa Fe / Midland)
- 1.29 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Colon Santa Fe / Midland)
- 0.72 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colon Santa Fe goals. Columns: Midland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colon Santa Fe vs Midland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Midland | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colon Santa Fe or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Midland) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win by 2+ | 26% | 3.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colon Santa Fe and Midland recent form
Colon Santa Fe
3W 3D 0L
Midland
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colon Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-2
- Win rate
- 61%
- Goals for / match
- 1.61
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Midland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-8
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colon Santa Fe at home only, Midland away only.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes 2026-11-14
- Temperley v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Almirante Brown — match page 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Colon Santa Fe, previous: Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano: odds and pick
- Midland, previous: Atlanta v Midland analysis