Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano preview
In the Primera Nacional fixture, Colon Santa Fe has a 61% chance to win against Defensores De Belgrano, who has an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% probability. Colon Santa Fe's expected goals stand at 1.50, while Defensores De Belgrano's expected goals are only 0.51.
Despite Colon Santa Fe's stronger recent form of W-D-D-W-D-W, the head-to-head record shows Defensores De Belgrano winning 2 of the last 3 encounters. This could influence the outcome, especially with both teams to score at 32% and Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano: model vs market
| Source | Colon Santa Fe | Draw | Defensores De Belgrano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 28% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 28% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Colon Santa Fe and Defensores De Belgrano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Colon Santa Fe / Defensores De Belgrano)
- 1.18 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Colon Santa Fe / Defensores De Belgrano)
- 0.82 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colon Santa Fe goals. Columns: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 11% | 8.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.13 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colon Santa Fe or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Defensores De Belgrano) | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win by 2+ | 33% | 3.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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Colon Santa Fe and Defensores De Belgrano recent form
Colon Santa Fe
3W 3D 0L
Defensores De Belgrano
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colon Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-5-2
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Defensores De Belgrano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colon Santa Fe at home only, Defensores De Belgrano away only.
Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Colon Santa Fe 1 · draws 0 · Defensores De Belgrano 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 0-3 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-01 | Defensores De Belgrano | 1-0 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-04-27 | Colon Santa Fe | 0-1 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
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- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-10-31
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Before and after this match
- Colon Santa Fe, previous: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe prediction
- Defensores De Belgrano, previous: Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel: odds and pick