Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu preview
In the fixture between Tristan Suarez and Deportivo Maipu, the 1X2 probabilities show Tristan Suarez at 50%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 25%. The expected goals indicate Tristan Suarez at 0.99 and Deportivo Maipu at 0.35, suggesting a low-scoring match.
However, both teams to score is only 19%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at just 15%. Recent form shows Tristan Suarez with a record of D-W-D-D-W-D, while Deportivo Maipu has L-D-W-W-D-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty about the outcome.
Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu: model vs market
| Source | Tristan Suarez | Draw | Deportivo Maipu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.00 vs 0.41.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tristan Suarez and Deportivo Maipu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.41
- Attack rating (Tristan Suarez / Deportivo Maipu)
- 0.95 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Tristan Suarez / Deportivo Maipu)
- 0.49 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tristan Suarez goals. Columns: Deportivo Maipu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 22%
- No goals (0–0)
- 25%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Deportivo Maipu | 14% | 7.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 17% | 5.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 22% | 4.49 |
| No | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tristan Suarez or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Maipu) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win by 2+ | 20% | 5.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tristan Suarez and Deportivo Maipu recent form
Tristan Suarez
2W 4D 0L
Deportivo Maipu
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tristan Suarez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-7-1
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.41
- Clean sheets
- 12 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 24 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Deportivo Maipu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tristan Suarez at home only, Deportivo Maipu away only.
Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Tristan Suarez 1 · draws 1 · Deportivo Maipu 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Deportivo Maipu | 0-1 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-08-09 | Deportivo Maipu | 1-0 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-04-05 | Tristan Suarez | 1-1 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
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- Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy 2026-10-31
- Agropecuario v Almagro — match page 2026-10-31
- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Tristan Suarez, previous: Almagro – Tristan Suarez, 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Maipu, previous: Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes: odds and pick