San Telmo vs Central Norte preview
In the fixture between San Telmo and Central Norte, the 1X2 probabilities show San Telmo at 32%, draw at 38%, and Central Norte at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 21%. With expected goals of 0.82 for San Telmo and 0.80 for Central Norte, the match could be low-scoring, which aligns with the 22% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
San Telmo's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 losses, while Central Norte has 4 draws and 1 loss. Despite San Telmo's better head-to-head record with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 encounters, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the match outcome.
San Telmo vs Central Norte: model vs market
| Source | San Telmo | Draw | Central Norte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 38% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 38% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
San Telmo and Central Norte expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.63
- Attack rating (San Telmo / Central Norte)
- 0.95 / 0.82
- Defence rating (San Telmo / Central Norte)
- 1.35 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Telmo vs Central Norte score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Telmo goals. Columns: Central Norte goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Telmo vs Central Norte goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Telmo vs Central Norte
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Telmo | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Central Norte | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.10 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Telmo or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| X2 (draw or Central Norte) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Telmo win by 2+ | 11% | 9.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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San Telmo and Central Norte recent form
San Telmo
2W 1D 3L
Central Norte
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Telmo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 34 matches.
Central Norte away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 7 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Telmo at home only, Central Norte away only.
San Telmo vs Central Norte head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Telmo 2 · draws 1 · Central Norte 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Central Norte | 0-0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | San Telmo | 3-1 | Central Norte | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-13 | Central Norte | 1-2 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Telmo, previous: Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo prediction
- Central Norte, previous: Central Norte v Acassuso analysis