Agropecuario vs Almagro preview
In the match between Agropecuario and Almagro, the 1X2 probabilities show Agropecuario at 44%, Almagro at 24%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% chance of occurring. Agropecuario has an expected goals figure of 1.27 compared to Almagro's 0.87, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Agropecuario's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 losses, while Almagro has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Additionally, the model suggests a 36% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score, meaning the match could also see more goals than expected.
Agropecuario vs Almagro: model vs market
| Source | Agropecuario | Draw | Almagro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Agropecuario and Almagro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Agropecuario / Almagro)
- 0.96 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Agropecuario / Almagro)
- 0.97 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Agropecuario vs Almagro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Agropecuario goals. Columns: Almagro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Agropecuario vs Almagro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Agropecuario vs Almagro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Agropecuario | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Almagro | 19% | 5.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Agropecuario or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Almagro) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Agropecuario win by 2+ | 27% | 3.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Agropecuario and Almagro recent form
Agropecuario
3W 1D 2L
Almagro
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Agropecuario at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Almagro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Agropecuario at home only, Almagro away only.
Agropecuario vs Almagro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Agropecuario 0 · draws 0 · Almagro 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Almagro | 2-1 | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Agropecuario, previous: Patronato vs Agropecuario: odds and pick
- Almagro, previous: Almagro – Tristan Suarez, 2026-10-24