Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales preview
Deportivo Moron faces Colegiales with a 35% chance of winning compared to Colegiales' 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Both teams to score stands at 42%, suggesting a moderate chance of both sides finding the net.
Deportivo Moron has an expected goals figure of 1.05, while Colegiales sits at 0.97. Recent form shows Deportivo Moron with two wins in their last six matches, while Colegiales has been more consistent with four wins in their last six. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Moron | Draw | Colegiales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 21% |
| Published | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Moron, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron | 1.89 | 1.93 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 2.95 | 2.91 | -0.04 |
| Colegiales | 4.55 | 4.33 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Deportivo Moron / Colegiales)
- 1.18 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Deportivo Moron / Colegiales)
- 1.21 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Moron goals. Columns: Colegiales goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Colegiales | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.40 |
| No | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Moron or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Colegiales) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Moron win by 2+ | 14% | 6.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales recent form
Deportivo Moron
2W 0D 4L
Colegiales
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Moron at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-3-2
- Win rate
- 72%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.72
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Colegiales away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-11
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Moron at home only, Colegiales away only.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Moron 6 · draws 2 · Colegiales 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-12 | Deportivo Moron | 1-0 | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2016-09-26 | Colegiales | 1-2 | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2015-11-08 | Colegiales | 0-1 | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2015-06-21 | Deportivo Moron | 0-0 | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2014-04-13 | Deportivo Moron | 2-0 | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2013-10-12 | Colegiales | 0-0 | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2013-03-20 | Deportivo Moron | 0-2 | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2012-10-01 | Colegiales | 1-2 | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2012-05-12 | Colegiales | 3-0 | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2011-12-04 | Deportivo Moron | 1-0 | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes 2026-11-14
- Temperley v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-11-14
- Colon Santa Fe vs Midland 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Almirante Brown — match page 2026-11-14
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Moron, previous: Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar prediction
- Colegiales, previous: San Martin Tucuman v Colegiales analysis