San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales preview
In the Primera Nacional fixture, San Martin Tucuman faces Colegiales with a 36% chance for a home win and a 35% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects a tight match with expected goals of 1.32 for San Martin Tucuman and 1.31 for Colegiales.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, suggesting a reasonable chance of goals from both sides. However, the recent form shows San Martin Tucuman with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Colegiales has 3 wins in their last 6. This could impact the outcome, making the predicted scoreline less certain.
San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales: model vs market
| Source | San Martin Tucuman | Draw | Colegiales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
San Martin Tucuman and Colegiales expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (San Martin Tucuman / Colegiales)
- 1.38 / 1.23
- Defence rating (San Martin Tucuman / Colegiales)
- 1.47 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Martin Tucuman goals. Columns: Colegiales goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Martin Tucuman | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Colegiales | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Martin Tucuman or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Colegiales) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Martin Tucuman win by 2+ | 17% | 6.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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San Martin Tucuman and Colegiales recent form
San Martin Tucuman
2W 1D 3L
Colegiales
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Martin Tucuman at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-8-2
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colegiales away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-11
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 34 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Martin Tucuman at home only, Colegiales away only.
San Martin Tucuman vs Colegiales head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Martin Tucuman 1 · draws 0 · Colegiales 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Colegiales | 2-0 | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-05 | Colegiales | 2-0 | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-02 | San Martin Tucuman | 2-0 | Colegiales | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Martin Tucuman, previous: Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction
- Colegiales, previous: Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela: odds and pick