Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro preview
Ferro Carril Oeste has a 40% chance to win against Gimnasia Y Tiro, who has a 25% chance, making the 1X2 probabilities lean towards the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals of 1.07 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.79 for Gimnasia Y Tiro.
However, the match could see a different outcome if both teams manage to score, as our model indicates a 37% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, the recent form shows Ferro Carril Oeste with mixed results, while Gimnasia Y Tiro has also struggled, winning only 2 of their last 5 matches. This inconsistency could affect the final result.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: model vs market
| Source | Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | Gimnasia Y Tiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 34% | 25% |
| Market | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Published | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ferro Carril Oeste, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.47 | 1.55 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.42 | -0.10 |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 7.50 | 6.52 | -0.98 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 0.81 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 1.04 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ferro Carril Oeste goals. Columns: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 17% | 5.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ferro Carril Oeste or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win by 2+ | 17% | 5.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form
Ferro Carril Oeste
2W 2D 2L
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ferro Carril Oeste at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-6
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Y Tiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-9
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ferro Carril Oeste at home only, Gimnasia Y Tiro away only.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste 1 · draws 1 · Gimnasia Y Tiro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 0-0 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-03-02 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1-2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes 2026-11-14
- Temperley v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-11-14
- Colon Santa Fe vs Midland 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Almirante Brown — match page 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales — team news & stats 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Ferro Carril Oeste, previous: Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste prediction
- Gimnasia Y Tiro, previous: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes: odds and pick