Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes preview
In the match between Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes, the 1X2 probabilities show Gimnasia Y Tiro at 57%, while Quilmes sits at 14%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time. Gimnasia Y Tiro has an expected goals figure of 1.44, compared to Quilmes' 0.60, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams score, which our model predicts at 36%. Recent form shows Gimnasia Y Tiro with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-L-D, while Quilmes has struggled with W-L-L-D-W-L. With a confidence grade of C, the result may hinge on whether Quilmes can improve their scoring chances.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Gimnasia Y Tiro / Quilmes)
- 1.17 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Gimnasia Y Tiro / Quilmes)
- 1.13 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Columns: Quilmes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Quilmes | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.54 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Quilmes) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes recent form
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2W 1D 3L
Quilmes
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia Y Tiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Quilmes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-11
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 19 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia Y Tiro at home only, Quilmes away only.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1 · draws 1 · Quilmes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Quilmes | 1-0 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-13 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 2-1 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-08 | Quilmes | 1-1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
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- Chacarita Juniors v Nueva Chicago — match page 2026-10-31
- Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy 2026-10-31
- Agropecuario v Almagro — match page 2026-10-31
- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Gimnasia Y Tiro, previous: Midland – Gimnasia Y Tiro, 2026-10-25
- Quilmes, previous: Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction