Updated

Primera Nacional · Round of 16

Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar

· Estadio Alfredo Beranger, Turdera

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Temperley to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TemperleyDrawCiudad de Bolívar

Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTemperleyDrawCiudad de Bolívar
Model65%24%11%
Market50%30%20%
Published54%28%18%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.64.
  • The market prices Temperley below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Temperley, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.74Now 1.85 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Temperley1.741.85+0.11
Draw3.203.10-0.10
Ciudad de Bolívar5.004.50-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Temperley and Ciudad de Bolívar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Temperley
0.64Ciudad de Bolívar
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Temperley / Ciudad de Bolívar)
1.38 / 0.84
Defence rating (Temperley / Ciudad de Bolívar)
1.06 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1 14.5% 10.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2 14.2% 9.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 8.7% 5.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 6.1% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Rows: Temperley goals. Columns: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Temperley vs Ciudad de Bolívar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Temperley54%1.86
Draw28%3.55
Ciudad de Bolívar18%5.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.22
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.46
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Temperley or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Ciudad de Bolívar)46%2.16
Handicap -1Temperley win by 2+40%2.52
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Temperley and Ciudad de Bolívar recent form

Temperley 2W 2D 2L
Ciudad de Bolívar 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Temperley at home

Record (W-D-L)
12-3-3
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.78
Goals against / match
1.11
Clean sheets
5 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ciudad de Bolívar away

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-6
Win rate
39%
Goals for / match
0.78
Goals against / match
0.89
Clean sheets
8 of 18
  • They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 16 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Temperley at home only, Ciudad de Bolívar away only.

Other Round of 16 fixtures