Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar preview
Deportivo Moron has a 52% chance to win against Ciudad de Bolívar, who has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Deportivo Moron has expected goals of 1.55, while Ciudad de Bolívar has 0.89.
However, the recent form shows Deportivo Moron has lost 4 of their last 5 matches, while Ciudad de Bolívar has won 4 of their last 5. This could impact the outcome. Additionally, there is a 44% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for more goals than expected.
Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Moron | Draw | Ciudad de Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Deportivo Moron and Ciudad de Bolívar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Deportivo Moron / Ciudad de Bolívar)
- 1.15 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Deportivo Moron / Ciudad de Bolívar)
- 1.31 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Moron goals. Columns: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Moron or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Ciudad de Bolívar) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Moron win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Deportivo Moron and Ciudad de Bolívar recent form
Deportivo Moron
1W 0D 5L
Ciudad de Bolívar
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Moron at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Ciudad de Bolívar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-5
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Moron at home only, Ciudad de Bolívar away only.
Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Moron 1 · draws 0 · Ciudad de Bolívar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 1-2 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Deportivo Moron, previous: Almirante Brown v Deportivo Moron analysis
- Ciudad de Bolívar, previous: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe prediction