Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe preview
In the fixture between Ciudad de Bolívar and Colon Santa Fe, the 1X2 probabilities show Ciudad de Bolívar at 38%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 15%. Ciudad de Bolívar has a recent form of W-W-W-W-L-D, while Colon Santa Fe's recent form is D-D-W-D-W-L.
The expected goals indicate Ciudad de Bolívar at 1.02 and Colon Santa Fe at 0.80. While both teams to score is at 36%, the low probability of Over 2.5 goals at 27% suggests a tight match. The confidence grade is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in the predictions.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Ciudad de Bolívar | Draw | Colon Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 35% | 27% |
| Market | 34% | 33% | 33% |
| Published | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ciudad de Bolívar below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ciudad de Bolívar, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 2.67 | 2.71 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 2.62 | 2.75 | +0.12 |
| Colon Santa Fe | 2.84 | 2.82 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ciudad de Bolívar and Colon Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Ciudad de Bolívar / Colon Santa Fe)
- 1.00 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Ciudad de Bolívar / Colon Santa Fe)
- 0.97 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Columns: Colon Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Colon Santa Fe | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.75 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ciudad de Bolívar or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Colon Santa Fe) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ciudad de Bolívar win by 2+ | 15% | 6.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ciudad de Bolívar and Colon Santa Fe recent form
Ciudad de Bolívar
4W 1D 1L
Colon Santa Fe
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ciudad de Bolívar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-4
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Colon Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ciudad de Bolívar at home only, Colon Santa Fe away only.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ciudad de Bolívar 0 · draws 1 · Colon Santa Fe 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Colon Santa Fe | 0-0 | Ciudad de Bolívar | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Ciudad de Bolívar, previous: San Miguel v Ciudad de Bolívar analysis
- Colon Santa Fe, previous: Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown: odds and pick