Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview
Colegiales faces Atletico DE Rafaela with a 72% probability of winning compared to just 8% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Colegiales' expected goals of 2.12 against Atletico DE Rafaela's 0.61.
However, recent form shows Colegiales has mixed results with three wins in their last six matches, while Atletico DE Rafaela has struggled, losing four of their last six. The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score, indicating that while Colegiales is favored, unexpected outcomes could arise from Atletico DE Rafaela's potential to surprise.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela: model vs market
| Source | Colegiales | Draw | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | 50% | 30% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 28% | 17% |
| Edge | +21% | -10% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colegiales below the model: +21.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colegiales, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.97 | 3.00 | +0.03 |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 4.68 | 4.71 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Colegiales / Atletico DE Rafaela)
- 1.23 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Colegiales / Atletico DE Rafaela)
- 0.80 / 1.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colegiales goals. Columns: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colegiales or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico DE Rafaela) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form
Colegiales
4W 1D 1L
Atletico DE Rafaela
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colegiales at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-1
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.35
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colegiales at home only, Atletico DE Rafaela away only.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Colegiales 0 · draws 0 · Atletico DE Rafaela 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 1-0 | Colegiales | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Almagro vs Tristan Suarez 2026-10-24
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever 2026-10-24
- Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo 2026-10-24
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page 2026-10-25
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron 2026-10-25
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Colegiales, previous: Agropecuario – Colegiales, 2026-10-17
- Atletico DE Rafaela, previous: Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes analysis