Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman preview
In the match between Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman, the 1X2 probabilities show Quilmes at 40%, while San Martin Tucuman sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Quilmes, with a 14% chance of occurring. The expected goals suggest Quilmes will score 1.13, while San Martin Tucuman is projected to net 0.89.
Both teams to score has a probability of 41%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Quilmes' recent form of L-L-D-W-L-W could impact their performance, as could San Martin Tucuman's mixed results of L-W-D-L-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman: model vs market
| Source | Quilmes | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Quilmes, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 2.03 | 2.04 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.10 | +0.05 |
| San Martin Tucuman | 3.70 | 3.62 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Quilmes / San Martin Tucuman)
- 0.76 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Quilmes / San Martin Tucuman)
- 0.96 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Quilmes goals. Columns: San Martin Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Quilmes or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or San Martin Tucuman) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Quilmes win by 2+ | 18% | 5.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman recent form
Quilmes
2W 1D 3L
San Martin Tucuman
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Quilmes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.41
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Martin Tucuman away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Quilmes at home only, San Martin Tucuman away only.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Quilmes 0 · draws 2 · San Martin Tucuman 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | San Martin Tucuman | 0-0 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-28 | San Martin Tucuman | 1-1 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-26 | Quilmes | 1-2 | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Almagro vs Tristan Suarez 2026-10-24
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo 2026-10-24
- Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela — match page 2026-10-24
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page 2026-10-25
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron 2026-10-25
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Quilmes, previous: Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes analysis
- San Martin Tucuman, previous: San Martin Tucuman vs Midland: odds and pick