Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever preview
Ferro Carril Oeste faces Chaco For Ever with a 36% chance of winning compared to 29% for Chaco For Ever. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time. Ferro Carril Oeste has an expected goals figure of 1.02, while Chaco For Ever sits at 0.89.
Ferro Carril Oeste's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 draws in their last 6 matches, while Chaco For Ever has 4 wins, 2 draws, and no losses in their last 6. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 30%, and both teams to score is at 39%. These factors could lead to a different outcome if either team exceeds their expected goals significantly.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever: model vs market
| Source | Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Market | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Published | 58% | 27% | 16% |
| Edge | -20% | +9% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ferro Carril Oeste, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.50 | 1.46 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.75 | +0.29 |
| Chaco For Ever | 6.50 | 7.10 | +0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.93
- Attack rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Chaco For Ever)
- 1.02 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Chaco For Ever)
- 0.88 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ferro Carril Oeste goals. Columns: Chaco For Ever goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Chaco For Ever | 16% | 6.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ferro Carril Oeste or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Chaco For Ever) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win by 2+ | 19% | 5.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever recent form
Ferro Carril Oeste
3W 2D 1L
Chaco For Ever
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ferro Carril Oeste at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-5
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaco For Ever away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-9
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ferro Carril Oeste at home only, Chaco For Ever away only.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste 1 · draws 0 · Chaco For Ever 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Chaco For Ever | 1-2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Ferro Carril Oeste, previous: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Racing Cordoba prediction
- Chaco For Ever, previous: Chaco For Ever v Central Norte analysis