Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron preview
In the fixture between Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron, the 1X2 probabilities show Almirante Brown at 51%, while Deportivo Moron sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Almirante Brown has struggled recently, with a form of D-D-L-L-L-D, while Deportivo Moron has a mixed form of L-L-W-L-L-W.
The expected goals indicate Almirante Brown at 1.64 and Deportivo Moron at 1.00. The model suggests a 49% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. These figures could change if either team improves their recent form or if the match sees unexpected defensive lapses.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron: model vs market
| Source | Almirante Brown | Draw | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 37% | 34% | 29% |
| Published | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| Edge | +14% | -7% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.00.
- The market prices Almirante Brown below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Almirante Brown / Deportivo Moron)
- 1.04 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Almirante Brown / Deportivo Moron)
- 1.07 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almirante Brown goals. Columns: Deportivo Moron goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Deportivo Moron | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almirante Brown or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Moron) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almirante Brown win by 2+ | 28% | 3.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron recent form
Almirante Brown
0W 3D 3L
Deportivo Moron
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almirante Brown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.47
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Moron away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Almirante Brown at home only, Deportivo Moron away only.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Almirante Brown 0 · draws 1 · Deportivo Moron 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Deportivo Moron | 1-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-14 | Deportivo Moron | 2-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-09 | Almirante Brown | 1-1 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page 2026-10-25
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page 2026-10-25
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-25
- Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Almirante Brown, previous: Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown: odds and pick
- Deportivo Moron, previous: Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre: odds and pick