Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar preview
In the Armenia Premier League match on 2026-11-01, Ararat-Armenia has a 70% chance to win against Gandzasar, who has a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability. Ararat-Armenia's expected goals stand at 2.26, while Gandzasar's is only 0.77, indicating a strong offensive and weak defensive performance from Gandzasar.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction. Both teams to score has a 49% probability, which means there is a chance Gandzasar could find the net despite their recent form of six consecutive losses. Additionally, the 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals reflects potential for more scoring, but it could be affected by Ararat-Armenia's inconsistent recent results.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar: model vs market
| Source | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | Gandzasar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 70% | 19% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Ararat-Armenia / Gandzasar)
- 0.92 / 0.58
- Defence rating (Ararat-Armenia / Gandzasar)
- 1.12 / 1.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ararat-Armenia goals. Columns: Gandzasar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Gandzasar | 10% | 9.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ararat-Armenia or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Gandzasar) | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar recent form
Ararat-Armenia
2W 1D 3L
Gandzasar
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ararat-Armenia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gandzasar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat-Armenia at home only, Gandzasar away only.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ararat-Armenia 4 · draws 0 · Gandzasar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Gandzasar | 3-4 | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-05-27 | Ararat-Armenia | 1-0 | Gandzasar | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-19 | Gandzasar | 0-1 | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-05 | Ararat-Armenia | 1-0 | Gandzasar | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu 2026-10-30
- Shirak vs BKMA 2026-10-31
- Ararat v Alashkert — match page 2026-10-31
- Syunik v FC Noah — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Ararat-Armenia, previous: Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah: odds and pick
- Ararat-Armenia, next: Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- Gandzasar, previous: Pyunik Yerevan v Gandzasar analysis