Ararat vs Alashkert preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Ararat and Alashkert, the 1X2 probabilities show Alashkert at 59%, Ararat at 17%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Alashkert's expected goals of 1.94 compared to Ararat's 0.97.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. Ararat's recent form includes 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Alashkert has won 3 of their last 5. The head-to-head record favors Alashkert, who have won all 4 previous encounters against Ararat. This could change if Ararat improves their scoring efficiency or if Alashkert underperforms.
Ararat vs Alashkert: model vs market
| Source | Ararat | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ararat and Alashkert expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Ararat / Alashkert)
- 0.84 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Ararat / Alashkert)
- 1.18 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ararat vs Alashkert score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ararat goals. Columns: Alashkert goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ararat vs Alashkert goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ararat vs Alashkert
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat | 17% | 5.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Alashkert | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ararat or draw) | 41% | 2.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Alashkert) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ararat and Alashkert recent form
Ararat
2W 2D 2L
Alashkert
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ararat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alashkert away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat at home only, Alashkert away only.
Ararat vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ararat 0 · draws 0 · Alashkert 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Alashkert | 3-0 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-04-14 | Alashkert | 2-0 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-04-11 | Ararat | 2-3 | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-08-16 | Alashkert | 3-0 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu 2026-10-30
- Shirak vs BKMA 2026-10-31
- Syunik v FC Noah — match page 2026-11-01
- Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Ararat, previous: Van – Ararat, 2026-10-23
- Alashkert, previous: Shirak vs Alashkert prediction