BKMA vs Alashkert preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between BKMA and Alashkert, the 1X2 probabilities show Alashkert with a strong 72% chance to win, while BKMA sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at 12%. Alashkert's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 draws, while BKMA has struggled with 5 losses and a draw in their last 6 matches.
The model also indicates a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. However, if BKMA can improve their attacking output, which is currently at an expected goals figure of just 0.76, they could challenge Alashkert's dominance. Alashkert's expected goals sit at 2.29, highlighting their offensive strength.
BKMA vs Alashkert: model vs market
| Source | BKMA | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Market | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| Published | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
BKMA vs Alashkert odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alashkert, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKMA | 9.40 | 9.54 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 5.15 | 5.05 | -0.10 |
| Alashkert | 1.25 | 1.25 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
BKMA and Alashkert expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (BKMA / Alashkert)
- 0.72 / 1.40
- Defence rating (BKMA / Alashkert)
- 1.37 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
BKMA vs Alashkert score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: BKMA goals. Columns: Alashkert goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
BKMA vs Alashkert goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for BKMA vs Alashkert
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BKMA | 10% | 10.41 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Alashkert | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (BKMA or draw) | 28% | 3.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Alashkert) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
BKMA and Alashkert recent form
BKMA
0W 1D 5L
Alashkert
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
BKMA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alashkert away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: BKMA at home only, Alashkert away only.
BKMA vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: BKMA 2 · draws 2 · Alashkert 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Alashkert | 4-0 | BKMA | Cup |
| 2026-08-10 | Alashkert | 3-0 | BKMA | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-05-02 | BKMA | 2-2 | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-11-08 | Alashkert | 2-0 | BKMA | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | BKMA | 1-3 | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-05-22 | BKMA | 2-0 | Alashkert | Premier League |
| 2024-10-27 | Alashkert | 2-0 | BKMA | Premier League |
| 2024-10-07 | BKMA | 1-0 | Alashkert | Premier League |
| 2024-04-28 | Alashkert | 0-0 | BKMA | Premier League |
| 2024-02-27 | BKMA | 0-6 | Alashkert | Premier League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Van v Pyunik Yerevan — match page 2026-11-06
- Sardarapat vs Ararat — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Noah vs Shirak — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Syunik vs Gandzasar 2026-11-08
- FC Urartu v Ararat-Armenia — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- BKMA, previous: Shirak vs BKMA: odds and pick
- Alashkert, previous: Ararat – Alashkert, 2026-10-31