FC Noah vs Shirak preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between FC Noah and Shirak, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Noah at 70%, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. FC Noah's expected goals stand at 2.19, while Shirak's is significantly lower at 0.75.
However, FC Noah's recent form includes a loss, and Shirak has managed a win in their last six matches. This could impact the outcome, as both teams to score is at 48%, indicating a chance Shirak may find the net. With a confidence grade of C, the match could still yield unexpected results.
FC Noah vs Shirak: model vs market
| Source | FC Noah | Draw | Shirak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Noah vs Shirak odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Noah, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Noah | 1.18 | 1.18 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 6.15 | 6.05 | -0.10 |
| Shirak | 11.11 | 11.11 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Noah and Shirak expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (FC Noah / Shirak)
- 1.58 / 0.80
- Defence rating (FC Noah / Shirak)
- 0.79 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Noah vs Shirak score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Noah goals. Columns: Shirak goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Noah vs Shirak goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Noah vs Shirak
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Noah | 75% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.24 | |
| Shirak | 9% | 11.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Noah or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Shirak) | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Noah and Shirak recent form
FC Noah
4W 1D 1L
Shirak
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Noah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 10 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Shirak away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Noah at home only, Shirak away only.
FC Noah vs Shirak head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Noah 9 · draws 0 · Shirak 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Shirak | 3-4 | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-03-22 | FC Noah | 3-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-03-16 | Shirak | 0-2 | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Noah | 4-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-03-29 | Shirak | 1-2 | FC Noah | Premier League |
| 2025-03-02 | FC Noah | 4-0 | Shirak | Premier League |
| 2024-08-11 | Shirak | 0-5 | FC Noah | Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | Shirak | 1-0 | FC Noah | Premier League |
| 2024-02-26 | FC Noah | 1-0 | Shirak | Premier League |
| 2023-10-26 | Shirak | 0-2 | FC Noah | Premier League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Van v Pyunik Yerevan — match page 2026-11-06
- BKMA vs Alashkert 2026-11-06
- Sardarapat vs Ararat — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Syunik vs Gandzasar 2026-11-08
- FC Urartu v Ararat-Armenia — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Noah, previous: Syunik vs FC Noah prediction
- Shirak, previous: Shirak vs BKMA: odds and pick