Van vs Pyunik Yerevan: model vs market
| Source | Van | Draw | Pyunik Yerevan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Market | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Published | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Van vs Pyunik Yerevan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pyunik Yerevan, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Van | 9.70 | 8.70 | -1.00 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.05 | -0.20 |
| Pyunik Yerevan | 1.25 | 1.26 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Van and Pyunik Yerevan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Van / Pyunik Yerevan)
- 0.90 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Van / Pyunik Yerevan)
- 1.45 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Van vs Pyunik Yerevan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Van goals. Columns: Pyunik Yerevan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Van vs Pyunik Yerevan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Van vs Pyunik Yerevan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Van | 10% | 9.70 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.59 | |
| Pyunik Yerevan | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Van or draw) | 28% | 3.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Pyunik Yerevan) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pyunik Yerevan win by 2+ | 50% | 1.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Van and Pyunik Yerevan recent form
Van
3W 1D 2L
Pyunik Yerevan
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Van at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pyunik Yerevan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Van at home only, Pyunik Yerevan away only.
Van vs Pyunik Yerevan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Van 3 · draws 0 · Pyunik Yerevan 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Pyunik Yerevan | 3-0 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-05-27 | Pyunik Yerevan | 2-1 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-18 | Van | 2-1 | Pyunik Yerevan | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-04 | Pyunik Yerevan | 5-1 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-05-23 | Van | 3-2 | Pyunik Yerevan | Premier League |
| 2024-10-28 | Pyunik Yerevan | 1-0 | Van | Premier League |
| 2024-10-06 | Van | 1-3 | Pyunik Yerevan | Premier League |
| 2024-05-09 | Pyunik Yerevan | 3-1 | Van | Premier League |
| 2024-03-12 | Pyunik Yerevan | 5-3 | Van | Cup |
| 2024-03-08 | Van | 1-0 | Pyunik Yerevan | Premier League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- BKMA vs Alashkert 2026-11-06
- Sardarapat vs Ararat — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Noah vs Shirak — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Syunik vs Gandzasar 2026-11-08
- FC Urartu v Ararat-Armenia — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Van, previous: Sardarapat – Van, 2026-10-30
- Pyunik Yerevan, previous: Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu prediction