Shirak vs BKMA preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Shirak and BKMA, the 1X2 probabilities show Shirak at 49%, while BKMA sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Shirak's expected goals are 1.46 compared to BKMA's 0.90, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with Shirak recording 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while BKMA has also seen 2 wins in their last 6. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is at 42%, and both teams to score stands at 47%, suggesting that while Shirak may dominate, BKMA could still find the net.
Shirak vs BKMA: model vs market
| Source | Shirak | Draw | BKMA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.84.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shirak and BKMA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Shirak / BKMA)
- 0.71 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Shirak / BKMA)
- 0.97 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shirak vs BKMA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shirak goals. Columns: BKMA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shirak vs BKMA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shirak vs BKMA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shirak | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| BKMA | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shirak or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or BKMA) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shirak win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Shirak and BKMA recent form
Shirak
1W 1D 4L
BKMA
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shirak at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BKMA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shirak at home only, BKMA away only.
Shirak vs BKMA head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Shirak 0 · draws 3 · BKMA 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | BKMA | 0-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-04-16 | Shirak | 1-1 | BKMA | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-04-12 | BKMA | 0-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-08-16 | BKMA | 2-1 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu 2026-10-30
- Ararat v Alashkert — match page 2026-10-31
- Syunik v FC Noah — match page 2026-11-01
- Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Shirak, previous: Shirak vs Alashkert prediction
- BKMA, previous: Syunik v BKMA analysis