Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku preview

In the match between Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku, the 1X2 probabilities show Şamaxı FK at 57%, while Safa Baku sits at 16%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0 with a 14% chance. Şamaxı FK has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Safa Baku's 0.73, indicating a stronger offensive performance.

However, the prediction could be affected if Safa Baku improves their form, as they have lost 5 of their last 6 matches. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 41%, and both teams to score is at 43%. This suggests that while Şamaxı FK is favored, the match could still see unexpected outcomes.

Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Şamaxı FK	Draw	Safa Baku
Model	58%	27%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	58%	27%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.73.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Şamaxı FK

0.73Safa Baku

Total expected goals: 2.34
Attack rating (Şamaxı FK / Safa Baku): 0.96 / 0.59
Defence rating (Şamaxı FK / Safa Baku): 1.01 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 5.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.4% 12.4% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Şamaxı FK goals. Columns: Safa Baku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Şamaxı FK	58%	1.74
	Draw	27%	3.71
	Safa Baku	16%	6.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.41
	Under 2.5	58%	1.71
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.35
	No	57%	1.74
Double chance	1X (Şamaxı FK or draw)	84%	1.18
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Safa Baku)	42%	2.36
Handicap -1	Şamaxı FK win by 2+	32%	3.12
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku recent form

Şamaxı FK 2W 3D 1L

Safa Baku 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Şamaxı FK at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

Safa Baku away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-3
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Şamaxı FK at home only, Safa Baku away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Sumqayıt vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-10-16

Before and after this match

Şamaxı FK, previous: Zira vs Şamaxı FK: odds and pick
Safa Baku, previous: Safa Baku vs Turan prediction

Prediction snapshot Şamaxı FK to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Şamaxı FK