Sumqayıt vs Araz preview
In the upcoming match between Sumqayıt and Araz, the 1X2 probabilities show Sumqayıt at 48%, while both teams share a 26% chance of a draw or Araz winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.73 for Sumqayıt and 1.24 for Araz.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Sumqayıt recording a run of D-D-L-L-L-L and Araz at L-L-D-L-L-L. The model indicates a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. However, if either team continues their poor form, these predictions could be affected.
Sumqayıt vs Araz: model vs market
| Source | Sumqayıt | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.25.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sumqayıt and Araz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Sumqayıt / Araz)
- 0.92 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Sumqayıt / Araz)
- 1.24 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sumqayıt vs Araz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sumqayıt goals. Columns: Araz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sumqayıt vs Araz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sumqayıt vs Araz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Araz | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sumqayıt or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Araz) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sumqayıt and Araz recent form
Sumqayıt
0W 2D 4L
Araz
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sumqayıt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Araz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sumqayıt at home only, Araz away only.
Sumqayıt vs Araz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sumqayıt 2 · draws 0 · Araz 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Sumqayıt | 2-1 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-15 | Araz | 1-0 | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-02 | Sumqayıt | 3-2 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Sumqayıt, previous: Sumqayıt – Qabala, 2026-10-10
- Araz, previous: Araz vs Kapaz: odds and pick