Araz vs Kapaz preview
Araz faces Kapaz with a 38% chance of winning according to the model. The expected goals for Araz is 1.25, while Kapaz has 1.12. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which suggests a low-scoring match. However, the probability for Over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, indicating that a higher-scoring game is possible.
Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, showing a near-equal chance for either side to find the net. Araz's recent form shows five games without a win, while Kapaz has mixed results with two wins in their last six matches. This uncertainty in form contributes to a confidence grade of C, meaning the predictions are based solely on the model's calculations.
Araz vs Kapaz: model vs market
| Source | Araz | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Araz and Kapaz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Araz / Kapaz)
- 0.89 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Araz / Kapaz)
- 1.38 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Araz vs Kapaz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Araz goals. Columns: Kapaz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Araz vs Kapaz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Araz vs Kapaz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Kapaz | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| No | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Araz or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Kapaz) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Araz win by 2+ | 17% | 5.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Araz and Kapaz recent form
Araz
0W 2D 4L
Kapaz
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Araz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Kapaz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Araz at home only, Kapaz away only.
Araz vs Kapaz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Araz 5 · draws 2 · Kapaz 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Araz | 2-0 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-09 | Araz | 2-0 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-04 | Araz | 0-1 | Kapaz | Cup |
| 2025-09-12 | Kapaz | 0-2 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-04-13 | Kapaz | 0-0 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-02-10 | Araz | 0-0 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-11-22 | Kapaz | 0-2 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-09-13 | Araz | 1-0 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-04-05 | Araz | 1-2 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-02-05 | Kapaz | 3-1 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA — match page 2026-10-09
- Zira vs Şamaxı FK 2026-10-10
- Sumqayıt vs Qabala — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Imisli FK vs Qarabag 2026-10-11
- Safa Baku vs Turan — team news & stats 2026-10-11