Imisli FK vs Qarabag: model vs market
| Source | Imisli FK | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Imisli FK and Qarabag expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Imisli FK / Qarabag)
- 0.75 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Imisli FK / Qarabag)
- 1.25 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Imisli FK vs Qarabag score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Imisli FK goals. Columns: Qarabag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Imisli FK vs Qarabag goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Imisli FK vs Qarabag
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Imisli FK | 14% | 6.90 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Qarabag | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Imisli FK or draw) | 39% | 2.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Qarabag) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Imisli FK and Qarabag recent form
Imisli FK
1W 1D 4L
Qarabag
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Imisli FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qarabag away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Imisli FK at home only, Qarabag away only.
Imisli FK vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Imisli FK 0 · draws 0 · Qarabag 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Qarabag | 3-0 | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-14 | Imisli FK | 0-1 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-10-31 | Qarabag | 2-0 | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Araz v Kapaz — match page 2026-10-09
- Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA — match page 2026-10-09
- Zira vs Şamaxı FK 2026-10-10
- Sumqayıt vs Qabala — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Safa Baku vs Turan — team news & stats 2026-10-11