Sumqayıt vs Qabala: model vs market
| Source | Sumqayıt | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sumqayıt and Qabala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Sumqayıt / Qabala)
- 0.91 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Sumqayıt / Qabala)
- 1.24 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sumqayıt vs Qabala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sumqayıt goals. Columns: Qabala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sumqayıt vs Qabala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sumqayıt vs Qabala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Qabala | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sumqayıt or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Qabala) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win by 2+ | 14% | 7.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sumqayıt and Qabala recent form
Sumqayıt
0W 2D 4L
Qabala
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sumqayıt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
Qabala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sumqayıt at home only, Qabala away only.
Sumqayıt vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sumqayıt 2 · draws 1 · Qabala 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sumqayıt | 1-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-20 | Sumqayıt | 0-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-07 | Qabala | 0-2 | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
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- Imisli FK vs Qarabag 2026-10-11
- Safa Baku vs Turan — team news & stats 2026-10-11