Zira vs Şamaxı FK preview
Zira faces Şamaxı FK with a 40% probability of winning, compared to 30% for both a draw and an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Zira, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.29 against Şamaxı FK’s 1.09.
While Zira has shown some recent form with two wins in their last three matches, Şamaxı FK has also been competitive, with three draws in their last five games. The market suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% likelihood for both teams to score. These factors could influence the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the model's probabilities.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK: model vs market
| Source | Zira | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zira and Şamaxı FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Zira / Şamaxı FK)
- 0.95 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Zira / Şamaxı FK)
- 0.93 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zira goals. Columns: Şamaxı FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zira vs Şamaxı FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Şamaxı FK | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zira or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Şamaxı FK) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zira and Şamaxı FK recent form
Zira
3W 1D 2L
Şamaxı FK
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Şamaxı FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zira at home only, Şamaxı FK away only.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Zira 1 · draws 1 · Şamaxı FK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Zira | 1-1 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-13 | Şamaxı FK | 2-1 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-09-19 | Zira | 2-1 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
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- Sumqayıt vs Qabala — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Imisli FK vs Qarabag 2026-10-11
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