Safa Baku vs Turan: model vs market
| Source | Safa Baku | Draw | Turan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 28% | 57% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 28% | 57% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Safa Baku and Turan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Safa Baku / Turan)
- 0.59 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Safa Baku / Turan)
- 1.26 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Safa Baku vs Turan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Safa Baku goals. Columns: Turan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Safa Baku vs Turan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Safa Baku vs Turan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 15% | 6.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Turan | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Safa Baku or draw) | 43% | 2.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Turan) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Turan win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Safa Baku and Turan recent form
Safa Baku
1W 0D 5L
Turan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Safa Baku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Turan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Safa Baku at home only, Turan away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Araz v Kapaz — match page 2026-10-09
- Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA — match page 2026-10-09
- Zira vs Şamaxı FK 2026-10-10
- Sumqayıt vs Qabala — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Imisli FK vs Qarabag 2026-10-11