Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA preview
Neftchi Baku hosts Sabah FA with a 42% chance of winning, compared to 35% for Sabah FA and a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. The match has a high likelihood of goals, with 69% for Over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
Neftchi Baku's expected goals stand at 1.87, while Sabah FA's is 1.70. Both teams are in decent form, with Neftchi Baku winning four of their last six matches and Sabah FA winning five of their last six. However, the head-to-head record shows Sabah FA with five wins in the last ten encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA: model vs market
| Source | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Sabah FA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Neftchi Baku / Sabah FA)
- 1.70 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Neftchi Baku / Sabah FA)
- 0.84 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Neftchi Baku goals. Columns: Sabah FA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Sabah FA | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Neftchi Baku or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sabah FA) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win by 2+ | 23% | 4.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA recent form
Neftchi Baku
5W 0D 1L
Sabah FA
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Neftchi Baku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabah FA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Neftchi Baku at home only, Sabah FA away only.
Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Neftchi Baku 1 · draws 4 · Sabah FA 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sabah FA | 1-2 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-08 | Sabah FA | 2-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-09-14 | Neftchi Baku | 0-0 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-05-24 | Sabah FA | 1-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-04-23 | Sabah FA | 1-1 | Neftchi Baku | Cup |
| 2025-04-02 | Neftchi Baku | 1-2 | Sabah FA | Cup |
| 2025-01-19 | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-10-27 | Sabah FA | 0-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-08-18 | Neftchi Baku | 0-2 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-05-25 | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
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