Lommel United vs Gent preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between Lommel United and Gent, the 1X2 probabilities show Gent at 49%, compared to Lommel United's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% probability. Gent's recent form includes four wins in their last six matches, while Lommel United has only two wins in their last six.
The model also indicates a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, Lommel United's expected goals are 1.15, which is lower than Gent's 1.67. If Lommel United can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcomes.
Lommel United vs Gent: model vs market
| Source | Lommel United | Draw | Gent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lommel United and Gent expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Lommel United / Gent)
- 1.04 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Lommel United / Gent)
- 1.04 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lommel United vs Gent score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lommel United goals. Columns: Gent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lommel United vs Gent goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lommel United vs Gent
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lommel United | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Gent | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lommel United or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Gent) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lommel United and Gent recent form
Lommel United
2W 2D 2L
Gent
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lommel United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Gent away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lommel United at home only, Gent away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page 2026-10-30
- KV Mechelen vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo 2026-10-31
- SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp 2026-11-01
- St. Truiden vs OH Leuven 2026-11-01
- Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lommel United, previous: OH Leuven vs Lommel United: odds and pick
- Gent, previous: Gent v Anderlecht analysis
- Gent, next: KuPS v Gent analysis