SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise, the 1X2 probabilities show Union St. Gilloise at 66%, while SK Beveren sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.12 for SK Beveren and 2.46 for Union St. Gilloise.
With a 69% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals. However, SK Beveren's recent form of D-W-L-L-W-W might impact their performance, potentially leading to a different outcome than expected.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise: model vs market
| Source | SK Beveren | Draw | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 19% | 65% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Published | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 5.57 | 5.79 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.02 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 1.56 | 1.50 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (SK Beveren / Union St. Gilloise)
- 1.29 / 1.85
- Defence rating (SK Beveren / Union St. Gilloise)
- 1.12 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SK Beveren goals. Columns: Union St. Gilloise goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SK Beveren | 16% | 6.13 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SK Beveren or draw) | 37% | 2.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Union St. Gilloise) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 45% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise recent form
SK Beveren
3W 1D 2L
Union St. Gilloise
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SK Beveren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union St. Gilloise away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: SK Beveren at home only, Union St. Gilloise away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page 2026-10-30
- KV Mechelen vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo 2026-10-31
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp 2026-11-01
- St. Truiden vs OH Leuven 2026-11-01
- Lommel United v Gent — match page 2026-11-01
- Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- SK Beveren, previous: KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren prediction
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge analysis
- Union St. Gilloise, next: Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction