Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense preview
In the upcoming match between Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense, the 1X2 probabilities show Atletico Goianiense at 75% compared to Ponte Preta's 6%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 17% chance according to our model. Ponte Preta's recent form is concerning, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Atletico Goianiense has won 4 of their last 6.
The expected goals reflect this disparity, with Ponte Preta at 0.45 and Atletico Goianiense at 2.06. Although the probability for Over 2.5 goals is 46%, and both teams to score is at 32%, Ponte Preta's struggles could lead to a lower-scoring match than anticipated.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense: model vs market
| Source | Ponte Preta | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6% | 19% | 75% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 6% | 19% | 75% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Ponte Preta / Atletico Goianiense)
- 0.42 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Ponte Preta / Atletico Goianiense)
- 1.76 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ponte Preta goals. Columns: Atletico Goianiense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 6% | 16.31 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.09 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ponte Preta or draw) | 25% | 3.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Goianiense) | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense recent form
Ponte Preta
1W 0D 5L
Atletico Goianiense
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ponte Preta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico Goianiense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ponte Preta at home only, Atletico Goianiense away only.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ponte Preta 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Goianiense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Atletico Goianiense | 2-0 | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B |
| 2026-03-18 | Atletico Goianiense | 1-0 | Ponte Preta | Copa Do Brasil |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Ponte Preta, previous: Novorizontino v Ponte Preta analysis
- Atletico Goianiense, previous: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife prediction