Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: model vs market
| Source | Novorizontino | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.33 vs 0.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Novorizontino / Ponte Preta)
- 1.42 / 0.46
- Defence rating (Novorizontino / Ponte Preta)
- 0.77 / 1.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Novorizontino goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 92% | 1.09 |
| Draw | 7% | 14.38 | |
| Ponte Preta | 1% | 70.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.55 |
| No | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Novorizontino or draw) | 99% | 1.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 93% | 1.07 | |
| X2 (draw or Ponte Preta) | 8% | 11.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win by 2+ | 78% | 1.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta recent form
Novorizontino
3W 2D 1L
Ponte Preta
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Novorizontino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-15
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 2.69
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Novorizontino at home only, Ponte Preta away only.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Novorizontino 1 · draws 0 · Ponte Preta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Ponte Preta | 0-2 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
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