Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta

· Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons· Referee Joao Vitor Gobi

Full time5 – 1

Alin prediction was Novorizontino to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NovorizontinoDrawPonte Preta

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNovorizontinoDrawPonte Preta
Model93%6%1%
Market89%8%3%
Published90%7%3%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.34 vs 0.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Novorizontino, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.10Now 1.06 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Novorizontino1.101.06-0.04
Draw9.1512.25+3.10
Ponte Preta19.0029.00+10.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Novorizontino and Ponte Preta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.34Novorizontino
0.28Ponte Preta
Total expected goals
3.62
Attack rating (Novorizontino / Ponte Preta)
1.45 / 0.42
Defence rating (Novorizontino / Ponte Preta)
0.68 / 1.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1 8.7% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2 14.9% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 3 16.6% 4.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 32.4% 9.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Novorizontino goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
24%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Novorizontino90%1.11
Draw7%13.60
Ponte Preta3%36.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.42
Under 2.530%3.35
Both teams to scoreYes24%4.20
No76%1.31
Double chance1X (Novorizontino or draw)97%1.03
12 (either side)93%1.08
X2 (draw or Ponte Preta)10%9.94
Handicap -1Novorizontino win by 2+79%1.26
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Novorizontino and Ponte Preta recent form

Novorizontino 3W 2D 1L
Ponte Preta 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Novorizontino at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-3
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.62
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ponte Preta away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-15
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.44
Goals against / match
2.69
Clean sheets
0 of 16
  • They have won 3 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 18 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Novorizontino at home only, Ponte Preta away only.

Expected lineups

Novorizontino lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 93 Jordi
  2. 5 Sander
  3. 4 Patrick
  4. 3 Carlinhos
  5. 2 Madson
  6. 50 Juninho
  7. 6 Luis Oyama
  8. 30 Nicolas Careca
  9. 10 Romulo
  10. 7 Ronald Barcellos
  11. 9 Carlão

Bench: C. Ortíz, Eduardo Brock, Tavinho, Vinícius, Diego Galo, A. Alvariño, J. Lora, Diego Mathias, Marlon, César, Jardiel Maciel Libertino da Silva, Maykon

Ponte Preta lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 30 Vinicius
  2. 44 Gustavo Almeida
  3. 23 S. Palacios
  4. 14 Danilo Barcelos
  5. 5 Rodrigo Souza
  6. 6 Juan
  7. 18 David da Hora
  8. 19 Jonathan Cafú
  9. 9 Brandão

Bench: Guilherme Viana, Karl, Nicolas Silva, Gustavo Lopes

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Novorizontino 4 · draws 3 · Ponte Preta 3.

NovorizontinoDrawsPonte Preta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-22Ponte Preta0-2NovorizontinoBrazil Serie B
2025-01-15Novorizontino0-1Ponte PretaPaulista - A1
2024-10-01Novorizontino2-1Ponte PretaSerie B
2024-06-15Ponte Preta1-0NovorizontinoSerie B
2024-03-03Ponte Preta1-1NovorizontinoPaulista - A1
2023-10-28Novorizontino2-0Ponte PretaSerie B
2023-07-02Ponte Preta1-0NovorizontinoSerie B
2023-04-08Ponte Preta0-0NovorizontinoPaulista - A2
2023-04-05Novorizontino1-1Ponte PretaPaulista - A2
2023-02-01Novorizontino3-0Ponte PretaPaulista - A2

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match