Botafogo SP vs Ceara: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo SP | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Botafogo SP and Ceara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Ceara)
- 0.90 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Ceara)
- 1.20 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Ceara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo SP vs Ceara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Ceara | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo SP or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Ceara) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win by 2+ | 16% | 6.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo SP and Ceara recent form
Botafogo SP
1W 1D 4L
Ceara
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo SP at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Ceara away only.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Botafogo SP 1 · draws 0 · Ceara 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Ceara | 0-1 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
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