Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Botafogo SP vs Ceara

· Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto· Referee J. Pinheiro

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Botafogo SP to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Botafogo SPDrawCeara

Botafogo SP vs Ceara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBotafogo SPDrawCeara
Model35%30%35%
Market45%29%26%
Published42%29%28%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Botafogo SP vs Ceara odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Botafogo SP, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 2.25Now 2.07 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Botafogo SP2.252.07-0.18
Draw3.123.18+0.06
Ceara3.103.58+0.48

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Botafogo SP and Ceara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Botafogo SP
1.22Ceara
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Ceara)
0.95 / 1.12
Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Ceara)
1.13 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Botafogo SP vs Ceara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.9% 9.2% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0% 1 9.3% 14.2% 7.9% 3.2% 1.3% 2 6.5% 8.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.7% 3.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Ceara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Botafogo SP vs Ceara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Botafogo SP vs Ceara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Botafogo SP42%2.36
Draw29%3.40
Ceara28%3.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.25
Under 2.555%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (Botafogo SP or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Ceara)58%1.74
Handicap -1Botafogo SP win by 2+16%6.34
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Botafogo SP and Ceara recent form

Botafogo SP 2W 1D 3L
Ceara 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Botafogo SP at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-7
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ceara away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-7
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
0.94
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Ceara away only.

Expected lineups

Botafogo SP lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Victor Souza
  2. 6 Patrick Brey
  3. 4 Vilar
  4. 3 Ericson
  5. 22 Gabriel Inocêncio
  6. 16 Matheus Sales
  7. 7 Kelvin
  8. 10 Rafael Gava
  9. 8 Everton Morelli
  10. 2 Jonathan
  11. 9 Hygor

Bench: Jordan, Guilherme Queiróz, Arthur Caíke, Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição, Felipe Vieira, Zé Hugo

Ceara lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Richard
  2. 12 Sanchez
  3. 13 Luiz Otávio
  4. 4 Luiz Otávio
  5. 18 Júlio
  6. 81 Joao Gabriel
  7. 25 Vinicius Zanocelo
  8. 8 Matheus Araújo
  9. 73 Saulo Mineiro

Bench: Rafael Ramos, Giovanni Pavani, L. Mugni, N. Ferreira, Caíque França, Richardson, Éder, Lenny Lobato, R. López, Lucca

Botafogo SP vs Ceara head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Botafogo SP 1 · draws 1 · Ceara 3.

Botafogo SPDrawsCeara
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-20Ceara0-1Botafogo SPBrazil Serie B
2024-11-13Botafogo SP1-4CearaSerie B
2024-07-26Ceara4-1Botafogo SPSerie B
2023-11-04Botafogo SP2-2CearaSerie B
2023-07-08Ceara3-0Botafogo SPSerie B

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match