Ceara vs Juventude preview
Ceara faces Juventude with 34% chances for Ceara to win, 31% for a draw, and 35% for Juventude to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 12% of the time. Ceara's expected goals stand at 1.01, while Juventude has slightly higher expectations at 1.10.
Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Ceara recording L-W-W-D-W-D and Juventude at D-W-W-W-L-L. The model suggests a 44% chance for both teams to score and a 35% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals. However, Ceara's poor head-to-head record against Juventude, with 0 wins in the last 3 meetings, could influence the outcome.
Ceara vs Juventude: model vs market
| Source | Ceara | Draw | Juventude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 33% | 36% |
| Market | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Published | 33% | 32% | 36% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ceara vs Juventude odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 2.61 | 2.77 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 2.96 | -0.04 |
| Juventude | 2.80 | 2.61 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ceara and Juventude expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Ceara / Juventude)
- 1.02 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Ceara / Juventude)
- 0.98 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ceara vs Juventude score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ceara goals. Columns: Juventude goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ceara vs Juventude goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ceara vs Juventude
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Juventude | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ceara or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventude) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win by 2+ | 15% | 6.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ceara and Juventude recent form
Ceara
3W 2D 1L
Juventude
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ceara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventude away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ceara at home only, Juventude away only.
Expected lineups
Ceara lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Richard
- 12 Sanchez
- 71 Gabriel Rocha
- 33 Éder
- 18 Júlio
- 25 Vinicius Zanocelo
- 81 Joao Gabriel
- 73 Saulo Mineiro
- 94 R. López
Bench: Giovanni Pavani, Matheus Araújo, L. Mugni, Caíque França, Richardson, Vina, Bryan, Lenny Lobato, Lucca
Juventude lineup · 3-4-3
- 93 Jandrei
- 47 Marcos Paulo
- 4 Messias
- 34 Rodrigo Sam
- 16 Diogo Barbosa
- 29 Gabriel Pires
- 75 Raí
- 13 Aderlan
- 10 Marcos Paulo
- 25 Alisson Safira
- 11 Fábio Lima
Bench: Raí Ramos, Titi, Luan Gonçalves, Wadson, Lucas Mineiro, Alan Kardec, Pedro Rocha, M. Castro, Ruan Carneiro, Juan Christian, Lucas Alves, Gabriel Pinheiro
Ceara vs Juventude head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ceara 2 · draws 1 · Juventude 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Juventude | 2-0 | Ceara | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-30 | Ceara | 0-1 | Juventude | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-12 | Juventude | 2-1 | Ceara | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-11-25 | Ceara | 1-3 | Juventude | Serie B |
| 2023-07-23 | Juventude | 1-0 | Ceara | Serie B |
| 2022-11-13 | Ceara | 4-1 | Juventude | Serie A |
| 2022-07-24 | Juventude | 1-0 | Ceara | Serie A |
| 2021-10-23 | Juventude | 0-0 | Ceara | Serie A |
| 2021-07-04 | Ceara | 2-0 | Juventude | Serie A |
| 2017-11-03 | Juventude | 1-0 | Ceara | Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page 2026-10-16
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Ceara, previous: Botafogo SP – Ceara, 2026-10-13
- Juventude, previous: Juventude – São Bernardo, 2026-10-11