Goias vs Nautico Recife preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture, Goias faces Nautico Recife with a 1X2 probability of 51% for Goias, 27% for a draw, and 22% for Nautico Recife. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Goias has an expected goals figure of 1.56, while Nautico Recife sits at 0.90, indicating a potential advantage for Goias.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Nautico Recife improves their recent form, which includes 3 losses in their last 5 matches. The model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, reflecting uncertainty in Nautico Recife's ability to contribute offensively.
Goias vs Nautico Recife: model vs market
| Source | Goias | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Goias vs Nautico Recife odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Goias, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 1.83 | 1.73 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.54 | +0.09 |
| Nautico Recife | 4.16 | 4.47 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Goias and Nautico Recife expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Goias / Nautico Recife)
- 0.97 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Goias / Nautico Recife)
- 0.98 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Goias vs Nautico Recife score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Goias goals. Columns: Nautico Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Goias vs Nautico Recife goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Goias vs Nautico Recife
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Nautico Recife | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Goias or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Nautico Recife) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Goias and Nautico Recife recent form
Goias
4W 0D 2L
Nautico Recife
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Goias at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-6
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Goias at home only, Nautico Recife away only.
Goias vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Goias 1 · draws 0 · Nautico Recife 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Nautico Recife | 0-1 | Goias | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Londrina vs Cuiaba — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Goias, previous: Operario-PR vs Goias prediction
- Nautico Recife, previous: Nautico Recife v Vila Nova analysis