Londrina vs Cuiaba preview
In the upcoming match between Londrina and Cuiaba, the 1X2 probabilities show Londrina at 35% and Cuiaba at 35%, indicating a balanced contest. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 49%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 42%.
Londrina's recent form is concerning, with 4 losses in their last 5 matches, while Cuiaba has shown some resilience with 2 wins in their last 5. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Cuiaba at 1.24 compared to Londrina's 1.12. However, if Londrina can improve their form, it could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Londrina vs Cuiaba: model vs market
| Source | Londrina | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Londrina vs Cuiaba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cuiaba, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 2.71 | 2.67 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.08 | -0.02 |
| Cuiaba | 2.58 | 2.62 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Londrina and Cuiaba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Londrina / Cuiaba)
- 1.06 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Londrina / Cuiaba)
- 1.31 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Londrina vs Cuiaba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Londrina goals. Columns: Cuiaba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Londrina vs Cuiaba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Londrina vs Cuiaba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Londrina | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Cuiaba | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Londrina or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Cuiaba) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win by 2+ | 17% | 5.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Londrina and Cuiaba recent form
Londrina
1W 1D 4L
Cuiaba
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Londrina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Cuiaba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Londrina at home only, Cuiaba away only.
Londrina vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Londrina 0 · draws 1 · Cuiaba 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Cuiaba | 2-2 | Londrina | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Londrina, previous: Athletic Club vs Londrina: odds and pick
- Cuiaba, previous: Cuiaba vs Avai: odds and pick