Athletic Club vs Londrina: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.12.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Athletic Club and Londrina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Londrina)
- 1.23 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Londrina)
- 1.20 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Londrina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Londrina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Londrina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Londrina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Londrina | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Londrina) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Athletic Club and Londrina recent form
Athletic Club
2W 2D 2L
Londrina
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Londrina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-10
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Londrina away only.
Athletic Club vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Athletic Club 0 · draws 0 · Londrina 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Londrina | 2-0 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
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