Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Athletic Club vs Londrina

· Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei· Referee Lucas Guimaraes Rechatiko Horn

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Athletic Club to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Athletic ClubDrawLondrina

Athletic Club vs Londrina: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAthletic ClubDrawLondrina
Model55%24%21%
Market47%28%24%
Published49%27%24%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.18.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Athletic Club vs Londrina odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 2.05Now 1.95 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Athletic Club2.051.95-0.10
Draw3.203.27+0.07
Londrina3.553.80+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Athletic Club and Londrina expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Athletic Club
1.18Londrina
Total expected goals
3.17
Attack rating (Athletic Club / Londrina)
1.21 / 0.97
Defence rating (Athletic Club / Londrina)
1.27 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Athletic Club vs Londrina score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 4.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1 7.3% 10.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.5% 6.5% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 4.3% 5.1% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Londrina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Athletic Club vs Londrina goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Athletic Club vs Londrina

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Athletic Club49%2.03
Draw27%3.69
Londrina24%4.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.59
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Athletic Club or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Londrina)51%1.97
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+33%3.01
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Athletic Club and Londrina recent form

Athletic Club 1W 2D 3L
Londrina 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Athletic Club at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-5
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Londrina away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-11
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
1.69
Clean sheets
0 of 16
  • They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Londrina away only.

Expected lineups

Athletic Club lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Luan Polli
  2. 19 J. Torres
  3. 4 Lucas Belezi
  4. 3 Jhonatan
  5. 23 Enzo
  6. 16 João Miguel
  7. 15 Jota
  8. 22 Diogo Batista
  9. 10 Kauan Lindes
  10. 11 Max
  11. 17 Kauan

Bench: Douglas Pelé, Felipe Negrucci, Zeca, Bruninho, Assis, Carlinhos, Tony, Yarlen, Yago Santos, Pedro Oliveira, W. Aponza, D. Vera

Londrina lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 34 Heron
  2. 4 Wallace
  3. 44 Caio Rodrigues
  4. 75 Kauê Leonardo
  5. 5 Tárik
  6. 28 Herbert
  7. 22 João Vitor
  8. 38 Geovane Meurer
  9. 7 Victor Hugo
  10. 23 William Pottker

Bench: Gilberto, Pablo Dyego, André Dhominique Queiroz Santiago da Silva, Gabriel Lacerda, João Coni, Mauricio Kozlinski, Kevyn, Thalis, Igor Bahia

Athletic Club vs Londrina head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Athletic Club 3 · draws 0 · Londrina 1.

Athletic ClubDrawsLondrina
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-20Londrina2-0Athletic ClubBrazil Serie B
2024-10-05Athletic Club2-1LondrinaSerie C
2024-09-02Londrina2-3Athletic ClubSerie C
2024-07-13Athletic Club2-1LondrinaSerie C

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match