Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Atletico Goianiense / Sport Recife)
- 1.25 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Atletico Goianiense / Sport Recife)
- 0.59 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Goianiense goals. Columns: Sport Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Sport Recife | 12% | 8.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Goianiense or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Sport Recife) | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife recent form
Atletico Goianiense
4W 1D 1L
Sport Recife
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Goianiense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Goianiense at home only, Sport Recife away only.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 0 · draws 1 · Sport Recife 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Sport Recife | 1-1 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
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