Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife

· Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania· Referee Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Atletico Goianiense to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico GoianienseDrawSport Recife

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico GoianienseDrawSport Recife
Model55%25%20%
Market51%27%22%
Published52%26%21%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.00.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Goianiense, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.87Now 1.82 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Goianiense1.871.82-0.05
Draw3.423.48+0.06
Sport Recife4.104.25+0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Atletico Goianiense
1.00Sport Recife
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Atletico Goianiense / Sport Recife)
1.22 / 1.30
Defence rating (Atletico Goianiense / Sport Recife)
0.80 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1 9.9% 12.0% 5.5% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.8% 9.8% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 3 5.9% 5.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Atletico Goianiense goals. Columns: Sport Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Goianiense52%1.92
Draw26%3.79
Sport Recife21%4.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Atletico Goianiense or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Sport Recife)48%2.09
Handicap -1Atletico Goianiense win by 2+32%3.14
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife recent form

Atletico Goianiense 4W 0D 2L
Sport Recife 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Goianiense at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-3
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.62
Goals against / match
0.81
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sport Recife away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-7
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Goianiense at home only, Sport Recife away only.

Expected lineups

Atletico Goianiense lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Paulo Vítor
  2. 6 Guilherme Lopes
  3. 4 Adriano Martins
  4. 3 J. Barreto
  5. 2 Ewerthon
  6. 8 Peixoto
  7. 5 Leandro Vilela
  8. 11 Soares Geovany
  9. 10 Netinho
  10. 7 Bruno José
  11. 9 João Pedro

Bench: Paulo Henrique, Kaua Henrique, Natã, Gebson, Yuri, Cristiano, Henrique Freitas Alves, Marrony, Guilherme Marques, Matheusinho

Sport Recife lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 Thiago Couto
  2. 96 Edson
  3. 3 Marcelo Ajul
  4. 5 Marcelo Benevenuto
  5. 27 Claudinho
  6. 29 Willian Oliveira
  7. 7 Patrick de Paula
  8. 10 C. de Pena
  9. 8 Juan Alano
  10. 30 Chrystian Barletta
  11. 19 Neto Pessoa

Bench: Biel, Perotti, D. Hernández, Brenno, Zé Gabriel, Clayson, Habraão, Augusto, A. Maron, Dudu, K. Andrade

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 3 · draws 6 · Sport Recife 1.

Atletico GoianienseDrawsSport Recife
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-19Sport Recife1-1Atletico GoianienseBrazil Serie B
2023-11-11Sport Recife0-0Atletico GoianienseSerie B
2023-07-15Atletico Goianiense3-1Sport RecifeSerie B
2021-10-31Sport Recife2-0Atletico GoianienseSerie A
2021-07-07Atletico Goianiense1-1Sport RecifeSerie A
2020-11-23Sport Recife0-1Atletico GoianienseSerie A
2020-08-17Atletico Goianiense1-1Sport RecifeSerie A
2019-11-30Atletico Goianiense0-0Sport RecifeSerie B
2019-08-28Sport Recife1-1Atletico GoianienseSerie B
2017-11-12Atletico Goianiense2-0Sport RecifeSerie A

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match