Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC preview
In the upcoming match between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC, the 1X2 probabilities show Sport Recife at 40%, while Fortaleza EC sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 52%, indicating a decent chance of goals from both sides.
Sport Recife has an expected goals figure of 1.33 compared to Fortaleza EC's 1.15. Recent form favors Sport Recife, who have won 4 of their last 6 matches, whereas Fortaleza EC has 3 wins in the same period. However, the head-to-head record shows Sport Recife has not won any of their last 3 encounters against Fortaleza EC, which could influence the outcome.
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: model vs market
| Source | Sport Recife | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Sport Recife / Fortaleza EC)
- 1.30 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Sport Recife / Fortaleza EC)
- 1.12 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Recife goals. Columns: Fortaleza EC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Fortaleza EC | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Recife or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza EC) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Recife win by 2+ | 19% | 5.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC recent form
Sport Recife
4W 0D 2L
Fortaleza EC
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Recife at home only, Fortaleza EC away only.
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sport Recife 0 · draws 1 · Fortaleza EC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Fortaleza EC | 2-1 | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-27 | Fortaleza EC | 1-0 | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-26 | Sport Recife | 0-0 | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Sport Recife, previous: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife prediction
- Fortaleza EC, previous: Fortaleza EC – CRB, 2026-10-12