Fortaleza EC vs CRB: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza EC | Draw | CRB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.02.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortaleza EC and CRB expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Fortaleza EC / CRB)
- 1.09 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Fortaleza EC / CRB)
- 0.88 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza EC vs CRB score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza EC goals. Columns: CRB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza EC vs CRB goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza EC vs CRB
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| CRB | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza EC or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or CRB) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortaleza EC and CRB recent form
Fortaleza EC
3W 3D 0L
CRB
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza EC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-1
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
CRB away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza EC at home only, CRB away only.
Fortaleza EC vs CRB head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fortaleza EC 1 · draws 2 · CRB 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | CRB | 1-1 | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B |
| 2026-05-14 | CRB | 0-0 | Fortaleza EC | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-22 | Fortaleza EC | 2-1 | CRB | Copa Do Brasil |
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