Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Fortaleza EC vs CRB

· Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza· Referee Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Fortaleza EC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fortaleza ECDrawCRB

Fortaleza EC vs CRB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFortaleza ECDrawCRB
Model45%30%26%
Market50%27%23%
Published49%28%24%
Edge-1%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.00.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fortaleza EC vs CRB odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fortaleza EC, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.83Now 1.87 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fortaleza EC1.831.87+0.04
Draw3.423.44+0.02
CRB4.204.10-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fortaleza EC and CRB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Fortaleza EC
1.00CRB
Total expected goals
2.40
Attack rating (Fortaleza EC / CRB)
1.07 / 1.33
Defence rating (Fortaleza EC / CRB)
0.78 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fortaleza EC vs CRB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 7.9% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 1 11.4% 14.0% 6.4% 2.1% 0.7% 2 8.8% 8.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 3 4.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Fortaleza EC goals. Columns: CRB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fortaleza EC vs CRB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fortaleza EC vs CRB

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fortaleza EC49%2.05
Draw28%3.60
CRB24%4.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.33
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Fortaleza EC or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or CRB)51%1.95
Handicap -1Fortaleza EC win by 2+22%4.54
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fortaleza EC and CRB recent form

Fortaleza EC 3W 3D 0L
CRB 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fortaleza EC at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-6-1
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

CRB away

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-7
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.69
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza EC at home only, CRB away only.

Expected lineups

Fortaleza EC lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 João Ricardo
  2. 13 Maurício Júnior Lima Rodrigues
  3. 6 T. Cardona
  4. 3 Lucas Gazal
  5. 22 Maílton
  6. 29 Rodrigo
  7. 8 Ronald
  8. 88 Lucas Sasha
  9. 16 Pedro Henrique
  10. 32 Luiz Fernando
  11. 21 J. Cantillo

Bench: Lucas Crispim, Vitinho, Kaio Henrique, Nathan Fogaça, Jaílson, Neris, Vinícius Silvestre, Welliton, Ryan Gustavo, Lucca, Rodriguinho, Paulo Baya

CRB lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Vitor Caetano
  2. 36 Lucas Lovat
  3. 22 Bressan
  4. 33 Lyncon
  5. 32 Hereda
  6. 21 Pedro Castro
  7. 97 Dadá Belmonte
  8. 10 Daniel
  9. 8 Crystopher
  10. 17 Thiaguinho
  11. 28 Mikael

Bench: Kevin, Douglas Baggio, João Neto, Matheus, Maycon, Geovane, Vinicius Barata, Estevão, Fábio Alemão, Henri, Luizão, Ygor Catatau

Fortaleza EC vs CRB head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fortaleza EC 5 · draws 2 · CRB 3.

Fortaleza ECDrawsCRB
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-21CRB1-1Fortaleza ECBrazil Serie B
2026-05-14CRB0-0Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil
2026-04-22Fortaleza EC2-1CRBCopa Do Brasil
2025-03-27Fortaleza EC0-1CRBCopa do Nordeste
2024-06-09CRB2-0Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
2024-06-06Fortaleza EC2-0CRBCopa do Nordeste
2024-02-11CRB1-0Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
2022-03-19Fortaleza EC2-0CRBCopa do Nordeste
2021-08-04CRB0-1Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil
2021-07-29Fortaleza EC2-1CRBCopa Do Brasil

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match