CRB vs Botafogo SP preview
In the fixture between CRB and Botafogo SP, CRB has a strong 61% probability to win, while Botafogo SP sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. CRB's expected goals are 1.98 compared to Botafogo SP's 0.91, indicating a significant attacking advantage for CRB.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams have shown inconsistent recent form, with CRB winning 3 out of their last 6 matches and Botafogo SP winning 3 out of their last 6 as well. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 55%, and both teams to score is at 53%, suggesting potential for more goals or a surprise from Botafogo SP.
CRB vs Botafogo SP: model vs market
| Source | CRB | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.99.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
CRB vs Botafogo SP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CRB, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB | 1.60 | 1.60 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.77 | +0.02 |
| Botafogo SP | 5.28 | 5.33 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CRB and Botafogo SP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (CRB / Botafogo SP)
- 1.35 / 0.96
- Defence rating (CRB / Botafogo SP)
- 1.07 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CRB vs Botafogo SP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CRB goals. Columns: Botafogo SP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CRB vs Botafogo SP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CRB vs Botafogo SP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CRB | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Botafogo SP | 18% | 5.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CRB or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo SP) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | CRB win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CRB and Botafogo SP recent form
CRB
3W 1D 2L
Botafogo SP
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CRB at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CRB at home only, Botafogo SP away only.
CRB vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: CRB 6 · draws 2 · Botafogo SP 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Botafogo SP | 0-1 | CRB | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-24 | CRB | 3-2 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-26 | Botafogo SP | 2-1 | CRB | Brazil Serie B |
| 2024-09-25 | Botafogo SP | 0-0 | CRB | Serie B |
| 2024-07-17 | CRB | 4-1 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2023-08-05 | CRB | 0-0 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2023-04-29 | Botafogo SP | 2-0 | CRB | Serie B |
| 2020-12-20 | CRB | 1-0 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2020-09-25 | Botafogo SP | 1-2 | CRB | Serie B |
| 2019-10-24 | CRB | 1-0 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page 2026-10-16
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- CRB, previous: Fortaleza EC – CRB, 2026-10-12
- Botafogo SP, previous: Botafogo SP – Ceara, 2026-10-13