São Bernardo vs Criciuma preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between São Bernardo and Criciuma, the 1X2 probabilities show São Bernardo at 54%, while Criciuma is at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an expected goals figure of 1.61 for São Bernardo and 0.84 for Criciuma.
However, Criciuma's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge São Bernardo's advantage. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 44% and both teams to score at 47%, indicating potential for a more dynamic match than the predicted scoreline suggests.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma: model vs market
| Source | São Bernardo | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Edge | +20% | -2% | -18% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.83.
- The market prices São Bernardo below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on São Bernardo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 2.72 | 2.96 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 2.98 | -0.02 |
| Criciuma | 2.62 | 2.46 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
São Bernardo and Criciuma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (São Bernardo / Criciuma)
- 1.22 / 0.84
- Defence rating (São Bernardo / Criciuma)
- 1.02 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: São Bernardo goals. Columns: Criciuma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for São Bernardo vs Criciuma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Criciuma | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (São Bernardo or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Criciuma) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
São Bernardo and Criciuma recent form
São Bernardo
3W 2D 1L
Criciuma
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
São Bernardo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Criciuma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: São Bernardo at home only, Criciuma away only.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: São Bernardo 0 · draws 0 · Criciuma 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Criciuma | 1-0 | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page 2026-10-16
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- São Bernardo, previous: Juventude – São Bernardo, 2026-10-11
- Criciuma, previous: Criciuma vs America Mineiro: odds and pick
- Criciuma, next: Sport Recife vs Criciuma: odds and pick