Sport Recife vs Criciuma preview
In the match between Sport Recife and Criciuma, the 1X2 probabilities show Sport Recife at 46%, while Criciuma stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Sport Recife has an expected goals figure of 1.37 compared to Criciuma's 0.93, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, the recent form reveals some inconsistency. Sport Recife's last six matches include 3 wins and 3 losses, while Criciuma has 2 wins and 4 losses. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 40%. These figures suggest that while Sport Recife is favored, unexpected outcomes could arise based on their recent performances.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma: model vs market
| Source | Sport Recife | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.93.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sport Recife and Criciuma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Sport Recife / Criciuma)
- 1.12 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Sport Recife / Criciuma)
- 1.15 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Recife goals. Columns: Criciuma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Recife vs Criciuma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Criciuma | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Recife or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Criciuma) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Recife win by 2+ | 22% | 4.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sport Recife and Criciuma recent form
Sport Recife
3W 1D 2L
Criciuma
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-2
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Recife at home only, Criciuma away only.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sport Recife 0 · draws 0 · Criciuma 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Criciuma | 1-0 | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Sport Recife, previous: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC prediction
- Criciuma, previous: São Bernardo v Criciuma analysis