Avai vs Botafogo SP preview
Avai faces Botafogo SP with a 38% chance of winning compared to Botafogo SP's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% probability. Avai's expected goals stand at 1.15, while Botafogo SP's is lower at 0.97.
However, both teams to score has a 44% chance, indicating that a goal from either side is possible. Avai has shown mixed recent form with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Botafogo SP has 3 wins and 2 losses. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Avai vs Botafogo SP: model vs market
| Source | Avai | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 36% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 29% |
| Published | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Avai vs Botafogo SP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avai, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 2.29 | 2.30 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.05 | -0.01 |
| Botafogo SP | 3.16 | 3.23 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avai and Botafogo SP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.75
- Attack rating (Avai / Botafogo SP)
- 0.75 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Avai / Botafogo SP)
- 0.95 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avai vs Botafogo SP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avai goals. Columns: Botafogo SP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avai vs Botafogo SP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avai vs Botafogo SP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Botafogo SP | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 3.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.84 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avai or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo SP) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win by 2+ | 13% | 7.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avai and Botafogo SP recent form
Avai
2W 1D 3L
Botafogo SP
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avai at home only, Botafogo SP away only.
Avai vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Avai 1 · draws 1 · Botafogo SP 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Botafogo SP | 3-1 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-11-23 | Botafogo SP | 0-0 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-07-28 | Avai | 5-0 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma 2026-10-24
- Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino — match page 2026-10-24
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Avai, previous: Avai – Athletic Club, 2026-10-18
- Botafogo SP, previous: CRB v Botafogo SP analysis