Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Botafogo SP and Sport Recife, the 1X2 probabilities show Botafogo SP at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Sport Recife has a lower probability of 23%, which could change if they improve their attacking performance, as they have an expected goals figure of only 0.97 compared to Botafogo SP's 1.49.
Both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a close contest. Recent form shows Botafogo SP on a strong run with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Sport Recife has mixed results with 3 wins and 3 losses. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome, especially given their recent head-to-head record of 1 draw and no wins for either side.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo SP | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Botafogo SP below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botafogo SP, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 2.40 | 2.46 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.15 | -0.02 |
| Sport Recife | 2.91 | 2.80 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Sport Recife)
- 1.01 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Sport Recife)
- 0.85 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Sport Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Sport Recife | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo SP or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Sport Recife) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife recent form
Botafogo SP
5W 0D 1L
Sport Recife
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo SP at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-7
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Sport Recife away only.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Botafogo SP 0 · draws 1 · Sport Recife 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Sport Recife | 3-3 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Criciuma v Ponte Preta — match page 2026-10-30
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
- Londrina vs America Mineiro 2026-11-01
- Cuiaba v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-01
- Novorizontino vs Operario-PR 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Botafogo SP, previous: Avai vs Botafogo SP prediction
- Sport Recife, previous: Sport Recife vs Criciuma: odds and pick