Novorizontino vs Operario-PR preview
In the Brazil Serie B match between Novorizontino and Operario-PR, the 1X2 probabilities show Novorizontino at 76%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (13%). Novorizontino's expected goals stand at 2.43, while Operario-PR's is just 0.67.
However, Operario-PR has shown some resilience in their recent form, with a win followed by four losses and a draw. This inconsistency could impact their ability to score, making the prediction of both teams to score at 45% a potential risk. With Novorizontino's strong recent form of W-D-W-W-W-D, they are favored, but surprises can happen in football.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR: model vs market
| Source | Novorizontino | Draw | Operario-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Novorizontino and Operario-PR expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Novorizontino / Operario-PR)
- 1.62 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Novorizontino / Operario-PR)
- 0.74 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Novorizontino goals. Columns: Operario-PR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Novorizontino vs Operario-PR
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Operario-PR | 13% | 7.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Novorizontino or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Operario-PR) | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win by 2+ | 54% | 1.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Novorizontino and Operario-PR recent form
Novorizontino
4W 2D 0L
Operario-PR
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Novorizontino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Operario-PR away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Novorizontino at home only, Operario-PR away only.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Novorizontino 1 · draws 0 · Operario-PR 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Operario-PR | 2-1 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-10-12 | Novorizontino | 3-0 | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-06-23 | Operario-PR | 2-0 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
- Londrina vs America Mineiro 2026-11-01
- Cuiaba v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Novorizontino, previous: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino: odds and pick
- Operario-PR, previous: Operario-PR vs Athletic Club: odds and pick