Criciuma vs Ponte Preta preview
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta shows a 75% chance for Criciuma to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 17%. Criciuma's expected goals are 2.11, while Ponte Preta sits at just 0.47. This suggests a strong advantage for Criciuma.
However, Ponte Preta could disrupt this prediction. They have recently drawn and lost several matches, but a change in form could lead to an unexpected result. With only a 33% chance for both teams to score, the match could also end with a clean sheet for Criciuma.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta: model vs market
| Source | Criciuma | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| Published | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Criciuma, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 1.06 | 1.06 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 11.70 | 11.70 | +0.00 |
| Ponte Preta | 29.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Criciuma and Ponte Preta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Criciuma / Ponte Preta)
- 0.87 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Criciuma / Ponte Preta)
- 0.97 / 1.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Criciuma goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 85% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 11% | 9.09 | |
| Ponte Preta | 4% | 22.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.53 |
| No | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Criciuma or draw) | 96% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| X2 (draw or Ponte Preta) | 15% | 6.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Criciuma win by 2+ | 48% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Criciuma and Ponte Preta recent form
Criciuma
4W 0D 2L
Ponte Preta
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Criciuma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Ponte Preta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-16
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.47
- Goals against / match
- 2.82
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 17
- They have won 3 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Criciuma at home only, Ponte Preta away only.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Criciuma 1 · draws 0 · Ponte Preta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Ponte Preta | 1-2 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
- Londrina vs America Mineiro 2026-11-01
- Cuiaba v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-01
- Novorizontino vs Operario-PR 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Criciuma, previous: Sport Recife vs Criciuma: odds and pick
- Ponte Preta, previous: Ponte Preta v Fortaleza EC analysis